Sadio Mane will be looking to lead his Senegal team to glory in the AFCON nation as they face hosts and favourite Morocco this weekend
05:00, 17 Jan 2026
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The final chapter of AFCON will unfold as Senegal and Morocco face off to decide the 2026 champions. Both teams arrive in Rabat unbeaten, though the hosts needed a dramatic penalty shootout against Nigeria in the semi-finals to book their place in the final.
Despite that tense moment for Moroccan fans, the pre-tournament odds proved accurate: Morocco entered as clear 5/2 favourites to win on home soil, and now only Senegal stands between them and the title. But will it be that straightforward?
The Lions of Teranga have won all but one of their six matches on the way to the final. Aside from an early scare against Sudan in the round of 16, Pape Thiaw’s side has largely been in control—most notably with a 1-0 victory over Egypt in the semi-finals, sending Mohamed Salah back to Liverpool without an AFCON trophy once again.
However, Senegal’s journey to the final has come at a cost. Al Hilal’s Kalidou Koulibaly was forced off with an injury in the first half of the semi-final, ending his tournament prematurely. The 34-year-old centre-back is a massive loss for Senegal, both on the pitch and in the dressing room. Additionally, Habib Diarra will miss the final due to suspension. The Sunderland midfielder has been instrumental in Senegal’s campaign, but his yellow card against Nigeria has proven costly.
With these absences, the hosts may have the advantage they need—one reason the odds continue to favour the Atlas Lions. Eight of Morocco’s nine goals have come from Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz (five) and Olympiacos’ Ayoub El Kaabi (three). If Senegal hopes to keep a fifth clean sheet at this AFCON, they will need to find a way to contain these two—a task easier said than done.
Defensively, Morocco have been just as solid as Senegal. The partnership of Adam Masina and Nayef Aguerd has been rock-steady, while full-backs Noussair Mazraoui and Achraf Hakimi have been outstanding. Only one of Morocco’s matches has seen more than 2.5 goals (against Zambia in the group stage), whereas three of Senegal’s games have exceeded that mark, with the Lions of Teranga scoring three goals each against Botswana, Benin, and Sudan.
Morocco’s defence will need to keep a close eye on Sadio Mane and company, but they have so far proven a cut above the teams Senegal has already overcome. The absence of key players, especially Koulibaly, will be felt by Senegal—not only for his defensive prowess but also for his leadership. Going into the final without him is a significant blow, regardless of how much Thiaw tries to downplay it.
With so much on the line, a high-scoring final seems unlikely. Senegal have failed to score in their last three finals (2002, 2019, and 2021)—a trend they will be desperate to break, but one that may well continue.
Senegal vs Morocco Predictions
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