The fate of West Midlands Chief Constable Craig Guildford looks set to be largely determined today.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is to make a statement to the House of Commons later today after receiving a report from HM Inspectors who reviewed West Midlands Police's handling of the decision to ban Israeli fans from Birmingham for a match between Aston Villa and Maccabi Tel Aviv.
The decision has triggered an almighty row amid claims that the decision was politically influenced and potentially antisemitic. The police maintain it was a vital measure to protect public safety and prevent potential mass disorder.
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The football match on November 6 saw police officers drafted in from forces across the country as several protests took place outside Villa Park.
We understand from multiple sources that the report will highlight errors made by the police chief in reaching the ban decision and in the aftermath of the decision going public, and particularly regarding responses to the influential Home Affairs Committee.
The Home Secretary will this afternoon read the critical findings from His Majesty’s Inspectorate of Constabulary (HMIC) about how the West Midlands force handled intelligence. She will then decide if she still has faith in its chief constable.
Her comments will come amid claims that the force leaders have been 'thrown under the bus' by the Home Secretary and that she was personally tipped off that a fan ban was a potential outcome, days before the decision - only to react furiously when it was made public.
Both Guildford and the force deny claims it caved into antisemitism or was seeking to appease extremists - instead they say their decision was based wholly on concern for public safety.
Independent MP Ayoub Khan, who represents constituents in Aston, has maintained the police and Birmingham Safety Advisory Group who made the final call did the right thing in the interests of city residents. He claims too that action since amounts to an attempt to scapegoat the police chief.
A Home Office spokesperson said this morning: “The Home Secretary has this morning received the Chief Inspectorate’s findings into the recommendation by West Midlands police to ban Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from attending a match against Aston Villa.
“She will carefully consider the letter and will make a statement in the House of Commons in response later today.”
Mahmood, the MP for Birmingham Ladywood, which runs close to Villa Park, does not have the powers to personally remove the Chief Constable. That power lies with the Police and Crime Commissioner Simon Foster.
He has indicated he intends to review the findings of His Majesty's Inspectors and a further review report before making his decision. He has also announced he intends to question the Chief Constable at a policing committee panel later this month, should Mr Guildford still be in post by then.
In a report in the Guardian today, Mr Foster has come out to say he is frustrated at the way inquiries into the affair have been hijacked by pro Israel MPs.
He criticised MPs on the home affairs committee for allegedly briefing journalists that Guildford should be ousted, despite ongoing inquiries.
In a statement, the PCC’s office said: “A civil servant phoned … saying they were sorry that MPs on the committee had been speaking to journalists about their views on the evidence they had heard, the private deliberations of the committee and the future of the chief constable, Craig Guildford, despite the MPs having not heard all of the evidence.”
Foster said: “This is deeply regrettable and a matter of the utmost seriousness, that risks compromising and undermining public trust and confidence in the integrity of the [committee] and its forthcoming report.
“It had been my intention to have due regard to the report, as part of my holding-to-account process, that will then in turn inform my decision making.
“However, this is a matter that impacts not only the integrity of the [committee] process and preparation of the report, but also the MPs who are members of the [committee] and who have been responsible for this apparent irresponsible and reckless conduct.”
Foster said the MPs should be named, ousted from influencing the report, and that he wants a public apology by the committee chair and “for the MPs concerned to voluntarily refer themselves to the parliamentary commissioner for standards and the committee on standards”.
Meanwhile, the Home Affairs Committee has published a letter of apology submitted by the Chief Constable to them which says that he was wrong to say that a 'fictitious' match referred to in a police report had been found 'using Google' as it had indeed been found by using an AI scraping tool - a claim he had previously denied.
It's one of a series of errors made by the chief constable and his assistant chief constable Mike O'Hara in evidence to the committee.